Indonesia's annual average real GDP growth rate is expected to fall to 4.1% in 2009-13, from 5.7% in 2004-08, as external demand for the country's exports weakens, domestic consumption and investment slow, and foreign investment remains sluggish. Consumer price inflation is expected to average 5.7% a year in the forecast period. The rate of price increases will moderate between 2010 and 2013 as upward pressure on wages remains weak (owing to high levels of unemployment) and as global commodity prices stabilise. The current account will remain in surplus in 2009-13 and the ratio of external debt to GDP will fall further.
The monetary policy of Bank Indonesia (the central bank) will be focused on preventing a sharp depreciation of the rupiah and setting interest rates at a level conducive to economic growth. Although access to finance will be limited in 2009-10, greatly reduced public debt ratios have given the government some fiscal freedom, while the fall in global oil prices has led to a decrease in the cost of fuel subsidies.
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Sources: Economist Inteligent Unit
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